The Perfect March Madness Bracket, Part II
In the last post, we saw that the odds of picking the two play-in games and the Final Four perfectly are a straightforward 1/32. Three out of every 100 people will pick those five games perfectly, on average. But there are 60 more games to pick, and the simplest method of estimating those odds is…
The Perfect March Madness Bracket, Part I
Lots of posts out there on the probability of predicting a perfect, 66-team tournament bracket. The logic does not seem terribly refined, though; the simplest approach misleads us into thinking it's far less likely than it really is, as do many of the methods. qb's approach will be to come up with the maximum conceivable…
Finally, a Constitutional Conservative Enters the Race
Chris Wallace's "ham-handed" (William Bennett's assessment) questioning of Michele Bachmann on Fox News Sunday is all over talk radio this morning. As a rule, I avoid TV political talk; it's too painful to watch, and this would have been no different. But now having heard the exchange about Ms. Bachmann as a putative "flake," qb…
A Thought Experiment on Taxes
A lot of people think economics an inpenetrable fog, but it needn't be that way. A lot of elementary economics is common sense. And one of the best ways qb knows to get common-sense ideas on the table is to perform "thought experiments." In a thought experiment, we ask a series of questions about a…
Privileges vs. Rights
It's time to let the air out of another *sigh* liberal balloon, folks. It's getting monotonous, but it's work that's gotta be done. ----- Chris Redfern, who is the Chairman of Ohio's Democrat Party, is only the latest in a long line of liberals who weigh "health care" between the supposed poles of "privilege" and…
The Arithmetic of Job Creation: Why 10% is the New 5%
According to World Bank data, the rate of net population growth in the U. S. in 2008 was 0.915% per year. Assuming a national population on the order of 300,000,000, that means each month we add 228,750 people: (0.915/100) * 300,000,000 * (1 yr/12 mos) = 228,750 people/month For grins, although 0.915% is historically low,…
A Bracing Dose of Realism
One of these days, a statesman is going to rise up and explain this to us in a way that even SEIU and ACORN can understand. That is, if by that time someone has invented a language of reality that they CAN understand, which does not seem probable. qb
The GM Charade
Finally, an organization with means has stepped up to challenge the wilful bilge that this administration is pouring down our collective throat. Call GM's bluff! http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/GM-named-in-deceptive-advertising-complaint-filed-with-FTC-92788939.html qb
The GM “Payback?”
Forbes has done the research, and the cynical suspicions appear to be right on the money. qb
I Dissent 